Rob's World

In The Washington Post, Joseph Cirincione enlightens readers regarding five myths about Iran's nuclear "threat."

1. Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran could kick out U.N. inspectors, abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty and reprocess the gas into highly enriched uranium in about six months; it would take at least six more months to convert that uranium into the metal form required for one bomb. Technical problems with both processes could stretch this period to three years. Finally, Iran would need perhaps five additional years -- and several explosive tests -- to develop a Hiroshima-yield bomb that could be fitted onto a ballistic missile.

2. A military strike would knock out Iran's program.

" ... after such a bombing, the Iranian population -- now skeptical of its leadership -- would probably rally around the regime, ending any internal debates on whether to build a bomb. Iran would put its nuclear program on fast-forward to create weapons to defend itself. It could also counterattack against Israel or other U.S. allies. This month, a top official of Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to "blow up the heart of Israel" if the United States or Israel attacks first."

3. We can cripple Iran with sanctions.

"Some mix of sanctions -- whether restricting travel, making it harder for Iranian banks to do business, further limiting foreign investment or even denying Iranian citizens basic needs, such as gas -- may be necessary if Tehran does not restrain its nuclear program or live up to its pledges. But the key is to couple such pressure with a face-saving way out for the Iranian leadership. As the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran put it, a sanctions strategy must feature "opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways." These could include Iran's inclusion in regional security talks, the suspension of sanctions and a secure supply of reactor fuel, leading up to normalized relations with the West."

4. A new government in Iran would abandon the nuclear program.

Some believe that an irrational, apocalyptic government now rules Iran and that regime change is the only solution. But there is broad support across Iran's political spectrum for the right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

5. Iran is the main nuclear threat in the Middle East.

The real danger is not a nuclear-armed Iran but a Middle East with more nuclear-armed nations and unresolved territorial, economic and political disputes. That is a recipe for disaster, and that is why there is no country-specific solution; we cannot play nuclear whack-a-mole.

Labels: Iran, War

Labels: American politics, War

Glenn Greenwald is the man.

Labels: Journalism, War

This piece in the Columbia Journalism Review takes the major networks to task for failing to diversify their sources, falling back on those all to willing to promote bombing, including (sigh) Tom Friedman.

"the only thing the Arabs are afraid of more than an Israeli strike is the absence of an Israeli strike. I guarantee you one thing, George, if the Israelis do decide to strike against Iran, there’s going to be a lot of Arab radar off that day. “Oh Ahmed, you forgot to turn the radar on? Shame on you!” That’s really what they’re rooting for."

After calling the Iraq war an "audacious roll of the dice," why would anyone listen to this guy's opinion's on foreign policy again? Marc Lynch and Glenn Greenwald are the pundits we need to hear more from.

Labels: Journalism, War

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Labels: War

According to this, Iran has left North Korea "far behind" in terms of its ability to launch missiles at a further distance.

Of course, since I remain dubious about Iran's intentions and capabilities, that should actually say something about North Korea's lack thereof.

Labels: north korea, War

I never thought I'd say this, but if Bush had revealed that he'd known about a nuclear facility for years before it was publicized, he'd be excoriated, not praised by Andrew Sullivan for his "mojo" or at the Huffington Post for "outmaneuvering" Iran.

Labels: American politics, War

Our government has known about the "secret" facility in Iran for years, as this points out.

"The United States was aware of Iran’s unfinished uranium enrichment site for several years, senior U.S. officials told CNN on Friday. U.S. officials have known about the facility since President George W. Bush’s administration, according to the officials who declined to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the negotiations."

And despite what you'll hear in the news, "(a) the Qom facility is not operational and (b) there is no evidence it is being used to create a nuclear weapon."

Labels: American politics, War